| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | W | Western Michigan | 23-6 | 1484.2 | +15.0 | 1499.2 | 77.3% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Boston College | 42-40 | 1499.2 | +39.1 | 1538.3 | 46.1% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Youngstown State | 41-24 | 1538.3 | +0.0 | 1538.3 | 55.5% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | USC | 31-45 | 1538.3 | -17.9 | 1520.4 | 26.7% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Nebraska | 27-38 | 1520.4 | -33.4 | 1487.0 | 47.0% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | UCLA | 13-38 | 1487.0 | -50.8 | 1436.2 | 52.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Indiana | 13-38 | 1436.2 | -4.4 | 1431.8 | 7.1% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Michigan | 20-31 | 1431.8 | -9.1 | 1422.7 | 8.0% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Minnesota | 20-23 | 1422.7 | -13.6 | 1409.1 | 20.8% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Penn State | 10-28 | 1409.1 | -22.9 | 1386.2 | 21.1% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Iowa | 17-20 | 1386.2 | -8.7 | 1377.5 | 13.6% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Maryland | 38-28 | 1377.5 | +37.8 | 1415.3 | 47.6% |